Last month I discussed the potentially negative signal in the ISM’s new orders/inventories reading. Persistently negative readings in the data have tended to precede economic contractions. But this month’s reading surged to 9.1 as inventories sank to 51.8 and new orders jumped to 60.9. This is much more consistent with healthy economic growth and real end demand. We have, however, experienced two negative readings in the last four months so I will be sure to keep a close eye on the coming reports as we progress further into the year.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.