In the last 3 days 3 different CEO’s have said their banks reported a profit in the first two months of the year. Citi, JP Morgan and Bank of America all said they have had solidly profitable quarters thus far. The news seemed to surprise the market and lit a fire under an oversold markets tail. But upon looking at the estimates it’s exected that BAC and JPM will be profitable this quarter so no surprise there. Citi is expected to report a loss of 32 cents. More importantly, these expected profits are before write-downs so it’s likely that Citi will report another large loss this quarter and Vikram Pandit will be held to task when they report. I think the market rally is more a function of fear run amok than (fictitious) bank improvement. Take these CEO comments with a heavy dose of skepticism….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.