“As a general rule we average across the various models we use to generate our best forecast as to where real returns are likely to head, rather than relying upon one signal model (without exceptionally good reason). Doing so currently results in our expectation of a -1.1% real return for the S&P 500 over the next seven years”
The Fed’s Crisis Failure – Too Much Wall Street….
For 5 years now I’ve stated that the Great Recession was a CONSUMER credit crisis. It was not a banking crisis. It was not about “too big to fail”. It was not about Wall Street and non-banks. It was not about corporate America.
A Falling Tide Grounds all Boats…
I wanted to emphasize a point I made in an earlier post with regards to index fund investing and macro trends. I view long only indexing as a subset of [ … ]
Chart of the Day: Buffett’s 90/10 vs the Barclay Macro Index
In the Fortune piece I linked to earlier today excerpting Warren Buffett’s 2014 letter, he recommended a very simple approach to asset allocation – a 90/10 split between stocks and bonds in low fee index funds. As I mentioned, he also said macro views were pretty much useless. So I compared the two using the Barclay Macro Index:
The Contradictions of Warren Buffett….
Fortune is out with an excerpt of the 2014 Warren Buffett annual letter. It’s full of useful nuggets of knowledge as usual.
3 Macro Drivers of the US Manufacturing Recovery
The death of manufacturing in the USA has been greatly exaggerated in recent years.
Can we All Agree to Stop Comparing Everything to the S&P 500?
Benchmarking is a pernicious thing in financial circles.
Takeaway from 2008 FOMC Transcripts: Predictions are Hard
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” – Niels Bohr
Rail Traffic is Starting to Soften
The latest reading on rail traffic is showing some fairly substantial softening. The weekly reading in intermodal traffic came in at -5.7% which brings the 12 week moving average to just 1.7%. That’s the weakest reading since the middle of last year. On the whole, this is much more consistent with the muddle through economic environment we’ve been seeing.