91%, eh? Those are odds you can work with….Here are some general market thoughts via Credit Suisse on what happens when the year gets off to a good start. Unfortunately, this doesn’t leave much upside even if the odds are high:
“Since 1970, 90% of the time the January to February period has seen markets rise by 6% or more (as has been the case in 2013), equities have risen for the rest of the year on average by c11%.
The only exception to this was in 1987 – but even in that case equities managed to rise 18% between the end of February and the middle of August (before falling 20% during Black Monday). Yet, in spite of that correction, markets still were up on the year overall.”
Source: Credit Suisse
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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