As of yesterday’s close 88% of all stocks traded on the NYSE were above their 50 day moving average. We have seen these levels just twice in 2010. In early June the % of NYSE stocks above their 50 day moving average reached 86.27%. In the ensuing month stocks sold off 8.5%. In April the % of stocks above their 50 day moving average reached 88.8% – just a tad higher than yesterday’s closing level of 88.11%. We all know what followed in May. In 2009 the index reached the 88% range twice and remained overbought and the market continued to rally, however, I think it’s safe to argue that 2009 was a bit anomalous. While the economic environment certainly appears to be less dreary than it was just one month ago it also appears that equities have priced in this “better than expected” environment.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.