Goldman has some very broad macro themes that support their thesis for an economic recovery. Below are the 6 key components of their macro thesis:
1. We expect real GDP to rise at a 3% annual rate during the second half of 2009.
2. However, recovery in 2010 is apt to be more anemic.
3. The unemployment rate should continue to drift up, to about 10¼% by year-end 2010.
4. Inflation is not a significant threat, at least for the next few years.
5. Monetary tightening is highly unlikely before the
end of 2010.
6. Treasury yields should come down.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.