Good piece here by Robert Rapier at Consumer Energy Report. He cites 5 common misconceptions about peak oil and what I believe is looking like an increasingly reasonable conclusion:
Misconception 1: Peak Oil = Running Out of Oil
Misconception 2: Peak Oil Beliefs are Homogeneous
Misconception 3: Peak Oil is a Theory
Misconception 4: Peak Oil was Dreamed Up By Big Oil to Inflate Prices
Misconception 5: Peak Oil is Denied by Oil Companies Worried about Alternatives.
So I think as far as peak oil goes, most of us can agree that just as it did in the U.S. in 1970, global oil production will inevitably decline. The points of contention are the timing, the steepness of the decline, the impact on the global economy, and the ability of other energy sources to fill the supply gap. Some believe it will be a non-event, and some people believe it will be catastrophic.
What do I believe? I think of peak oil as supply struggling to keep up with demand, which will keep prices at recession-inducing levels. I think that we will probably eek out a bit more global production, but I will be surprised if the world gets past 90 million barrels per day. I believe that shale gas and oil sands production will continue to rise, and global carbon emissions will continue their upward march.
Read the full piece here.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.