Calculated Risk recently highlighted 5 hopeful signs for the economy via Goldman Sachs. Gauging from the change in market sentiment last week and a few hopeful data points I don’t think their reasons for hope are unfounded though it’s still difficult to get overly excited about this economy and the clear malaise that is occurring:
“First, commodity prices have eased. Using a standard seasonal adjustment procedure, retail gasoline prices are back to end-2010 levels.
Second, despite the increase in interest rates this week, financial conditions are easier than at any point in 2010. Bank lending standards remain tight, but these too are easing on the margin.
Third, the decline in house prices may be abating.
Fourth, vehicle production has rebounded following large disruptions due to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.
Fifth, labor market indicators seem to have stabilized after some worrying readings in late April and May, although we’ll have to wait until next Friday’s June employment report for a more definitive assessment. … We expect an increase of 125,000 payroll jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping back to 9.0%.”
Source: Goldman Sachs (via Calculated Risk)
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
Comments are closed.