Interesting thoughts in a new piece by former Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach. He is a big believer in the China economic growth story and provides some good insights on the reasons why is he unwavering in this belief. There’s been a lot of China bashing of late (by yours truly as well) so peering at the other side of the coin is often useful. Roach elaborates (the full piece is a good read):
The China doubters are back in force. They seem to come in waves – every few years, or so. Yet, year in and year out, China has defied the naysayers and stayed the course, perpetuating the most spectacular development miracle of modern times. That seems likely to continue….Here are ten reasons why it doesn’t pay to diagnose the Chinese economy by drawing inferences from the experiences of others:
3. Wherewithal to deliver.
5. Rural-urban migration.
6. Low-hanging fruit – Consumption.
7. Low-hanging fruit – Services.
8. Foreign direct investment.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.