Does Scott Sumner know how siegniorage works in a modern fiat monetary system?
Category: Most Recent Stories
Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable
Just passing along an interesting read here via Tren Griffin. This paper discusses investing in the unknown and unknowable. I particularly enjoyed section 2 on behavioral biases. It’s an interesting read if you have some time.
Models are Great if you Understand Their Limitations
I love models, but we also have to understand their limitations and how well they actually represent our reality.
Who is the Alpha Bank?
what if the “central bank” isn’t really so central? What if the central bank is actually the beta bank?
Where We Are in the Cycle – Connecting the Dots
Last week I posted a good chart from Morgan Stanley showing where some countries were in the business cycle. Of course, the business cycle is not the market cycle so this doesn’t really connect the dots to anything. Luckily, David Rosenberg has some data for us (at least as it applies to the USA):
Open Forum: Inequality
“The problem with competition is that someone ends up winning”
Worried About Rates? Worry About Growth.
Don’t worry about rising rates if you’re also worried about low growth….
The Financial Repression Portfolio
Here’s an excellent interview with James Montier of GMO, who is one of the finest market thinkers in the world. The part that really jumped out at me was the portfolio allocation discussion and how to prepare a portfolio in a world of “financial repression” where almost nothing is cheap:
On the Prospects a Bear Steepener
as noted by ZIRP and the state of the curve, all future recessions have been cancelled until the NBER notifies us (after the fact).