It’s no secret that I am skeptical of the approach to stimulus via Abenomics. I think it’s potentially creating a very dangerous disequilibrium in markets like their stock market that [ … ]
David Tepper and The Coming “Cash on the Sidelines”
David Tepper of Appaloosa Asset Management was on CNBC this morning reiterating his bullish call for stocks based on the Fed’s easing programs. Tepper, in case you don’t know, has [ … ]
NY Fed: Household De-leveraging Continues
The latest NY Fed report on household debt showed continued de-leveraging, but continued improvement in many trends: “Aggregate consumer debt declined in the first quarter, by $110 billion, resuming the [ … ]
177 Days Without a 5% Correction….
It’s no secret that the equity market feels invincible right now. How invincible though? How about this. We’ve now gone 177 days without a 5% correction. That’s a new record [ … ]
I’m Not Economically Religious Enough…
I constantly receive criticism from people who say that my work doesn’t focus on prescriptive aspects of the economy enough. I don’t really know why. I guess people assume I am some heartless bastard who doesn’t care about other people and the problems we confront.
Retail Sales – Muddle Through Continues
Retail sales came in slightly better than expected this morning, but are still consistent with a rather sluggish economy. The year over year rate of change was +3.7% which [ … ]
The Race to Zero in High Yield Credit
“The average annual credit loss in high yield bond portfolios was 2.65% between 1992 and 2011. During that same time period, your average yield for taking that credit risk was 10.25% and your average option adjusted spread was 5.7% . Today, that total yield has dropped to 4.96%.”
What to Make of the Fed’s Planned Exit Strategy….
It turns out that Thursday’s market scare over a Jon Hilsenrath “Fed exit strategy” article wasn’t just hot air. Hilsenrath, widely acknowledged as the Fed’s inside man, wrote an important [ … ]
Why Sovereigns Default on Local Currency Debt
I’ve had a number of emails and comments this morning on this report from Fitch titled “The money printing myth – why sovereigns default on local currency debt”. So here’s [ … ]