As this great chart out of CitiBank shows, the correlation between mortgage delinquencies and the unemployment rate is nearly 1:1. In January I predicted that the unemployment rate would hit 10%. That was a prediction I took a lot of flack for, but it is looking modest after March’s unemployment report showed an 8.5% rate. I think we could hit 11%+ by this time next year. What does this mean? It means the woes in the housing market are far from over….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.