A few of my bigger “macro” predictions over the last few years which I think are important because they are grounded, largely, in my understandings of the modern monetary system. As I like to say, better understandings lead to better results:
2) the USA wasn’t on the verge of a solvency crisis like Greece and that bond vigilantes in the USA were a myth.
3) the USA was Japan on fast forward and that our recovery was progressing faster than many presumed.
4) I described the balance sheet recession in near perfect detail and .
5) the bond bubble was a myth.
6) interest rates would remain low even when QE2 ended.
7) housing prices had likely bottomed in 2012 (I also called the housing bubble back in another lifetime).
8) several times in the last few years expressing my bullishness about the US stock market and in 2015 said that investors should expect much lower returns going forward.
9) the high profile predictions about a municipal bond crisis were wrong.
10) I of the flawed monetary system. 3 years later that looks to have been dead on.
11) I said silver was a “bubble” in 2011 when it was near its peak in price.
12) I said commodities were in a bubble in 2011.
I’ve had my share of mistakes as well. But I’d say my track record has been pretty good about some pretty complex matters….