Pragmatic Capitalism

Practical Views on Money, Finance & Life

My Predictions

A few of my bigger “macro” predictions over the last few years which I think are important because they are grounded, largely, in my understandings of the modern monetary system.  As I like to say, better understandings lead to better results:

1) I said QE wouldn’t cause high inflation or hyperinflation.
2) I said the USA wasn’t on the verge of a solvency crisis like Greece and that bond vigilantes in the USA were a myth.
3) I said the USA was Japan on fast forward and that our recovery was progressing faster than many presumed.
4) I described the balance sheet recession in near perfect detail and even predicted its precise end.
5) I said the bond bubble was a myth.
6) I said interest rates would remain low even when QE2 ended.
7) I said housing prices had likely bottomed in 2012 (I also called the housing bubble back in another lifetime).
8) I’ve been on national TV several times in the last few years expressing my bullishness about the US stock market and in 2015 said that investors should expect much lower returns going forward.
9) I said the high profile predictions about a municipal bond crisis were wrong.
10) I said Europe would diverge because of the flawed monetary system. 3 years later that looks to have been dead on.

11)  I said silver was a “bubble” in 2011 when it was near its peak in price.

12)  I said commodities were in a bubble in 2011.

I’ve had my share of mistakes as well as I noted here. But I’d say my track record has been pretty good about some pretty complex matters….