Regular readers know I am a big fan of getting called out on things. Not because I like to be wrong or making other people look silly, but because I sincerely enjoy the constructive criticism. Over the years I’ve been wrong about plenty of things. That’s totally normal in this business. When you write as much stuff as I do about things as hard to understand as the monetary system then you’re bound to get tripped up. It’s one incredibly long learning curve we’re all walking on here and I doubt anyone ever gets to the end of it. The world of money and finance is one big complex puzzle and I enjoy working with readers and other people trying to solve that puzzle. Anyone who tells you they’ve solved it is probably lying or misleading.
Anyhow, there’s a real power in being wrong. The quote “there are no mistakes, only lessons” is completely true if you actually live your life that way. I like to say “it’s in being wrong that we learn to be right”. So when I see people being called out for their mistakes (in a respectable and mature way) I think that should generally be applauded because it provides the platform for learning and improvement.
So I loved it tonight on RT when Lauren Lyster asked Peter Schiff “what about the hyperinflation…you’ve been predicting since 2008?” I’ve had a lot of fun over the years at the expense of the people who called for hyperinflation in 2008 (Schiff certainly wasn’t the only one), but I’ve only done that because it provides a great lesson for many others. Obviously, Schiff is sticking to his guns, but that’s not the point here. The point is to seriously consider why was Schiff wrong and why I have been right? Was I working from a superior understanding of the monetary system? Or have I just been lucky? You need to decide that for yourself, but you need to really explore those questions and truly consider both approaches and why one seems to have worked out far better than the other. There’s a lesson to be learned in these bad predictions. And those lessons are hugely important forms of risk management in that they help you avoid future mistakes.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.