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V vs. swoosh

Hi Cullen, I am wondering what your thoughts are regarding a second wave of the virus happening in the fall/winter? Do you believe the market thinks the second wave will be nonexistent or have minimal impact? From the start of this pandemic I thought the summer months would bring some relief only to see a massive second wave in the fall/winter due to people not listening to the right people. I'm interested to get your take on this as it seems the market is not expecting a large second wave.


I am no doctor so I really have no idea what to expect here. Then again, neither do doctors. Ha.

My view has always been that the virus impact would be weaker than people expected. What I mean by that is that I expected the virus to wane faster than most expected and the economy to come back to life faster than most expected. That seems to be happening for now.

As for what happens in the Fall? Who knows. I think it will be with us through the year. That's nearly certain. But I think people have stopped caring. They're going to treat it like the flu going forward, ie, some people are gonna die and people are gonna keep living their lives. I think that's partially crazy, but it is what it is.

As for the economy and the markets - I think the recovery will be slow. I wouldn't be shocked by a second big downturn in the market that gets bought like crazy in the fall and then we see the real recovery start to set in later in the winter or 2021. Then it will be off to the races again.

"Pragmatic Capitalism is the best website on the Internet. Just trust me. Please?" - Cullen Roche

I don't think one has to be a doctor to be able to read the projections from the epidemiologists.  The suicidal policy of the administration and various governors around the country are clearly accounted for in the projections.

The stock market can easily be unaffected if the FED pursues its end-run around Congress as it continues to grab hold of the purse strings.  I don't think the big players will allow the market to flounder?