I think there’s a more interesting way to frame this question: what is the structure of the model that Cullen envisions is being repeated. What aspects of the economy is he looking at?
I find it hard to decode broad prompts such as “USD rose in the late 90s”, and “housing steadily rose into the boom” – actually all 5 items (except maybe the oil price) seem to defy definition as a single metric (USD rose against which currencies, breadth of growth using which segmentation of the economy). Even if I reduce them to some common trope (bonds = Treasuries) the next thought is how to organize all the myriad inputs that are commonly modeled to affect such a metric.
Maybe it’s easier to see / self-evident what is replaying if we get an idea of what Cullen sees in bond structures / currency risks / asset pricing behavior are the same in 2017 as in 1997?