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Pragmatic Capitalism

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AAII Roundtable Discussion This Saturday in Los Angeles

I’ll be part of a round-table discussion in Los Angeles this Saturday, 9AM at the AAII Los Angeles annual meeting.  The awesome Tom Petruno from the LA Times will be joining me to discuss the financial markets and the maroeconomic environment. If you’re in the LA area you should come out and join us.  The… Read More

QE: “Printing Money” To Tax Your Own Citizens

macro

The Federal Reserve reported a massive $97.7B in net income for the year 2015 thanks primarily to the income the Fed earned on its asset holdings via QE.  And while the media will likely report this as a windfall profit the reality is that this is a huge drag on the aggregate economy.  You see,… Read More

2008 Has Already Happened in the Energy Sector

strategy

We’re approaching a level of truly horrific returns in the energy space as the price of oil continues to crumble in the early days of 2016.  There are quite a few people predicting a repeat of 2008, but the reality is that the energy space has already experienced its 2008. To put things in perspective,… Read More

Powerball Fever!

opinion

Tonight’s Powerball is expected to total $900MM.  But you won’t really get $900MM.  Most winners choose the lump sum payout option which, in this case, will amount to $558MM.  This is probably the smart move for a savvy saver in a low interest rate environment who will wisely allocate the cash in a diversified portfolio expecting to… Read More

China, China, China….

macro

The year of China appears to have started.  At least that’s what the headlines would have us all think.  I feel like I can’t read anything in the financial news in 2016 without stumbling on how awful the Chinese stock market is.  But let’s pan way out here and put things in perspective again because… Read More

Why Hedge Funds Are Sucking Wind

strategy

The basic arithmetic of the financial markets is very simple. At the aggregate level there is just one portfolio of all outstanding financial assets. These financial assets generate “the market” return. This means that the holders of these financial assets must, by definition, generate the post-tax and post-fee return. That is, the aggregate of investors will… Read More

10 Useless Predictions for 2016

macro

I’ve discussed in detail why annual predictions are relatively useless.  In short, a 12 month period is too brief to establish a reliable data set for market predictions.  There is simply too much noise inside of this time frame for us to establish high probability predictions. But hey, let’s not rain on the parade here.… Read More

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