Pragmatic Capitalism

Practical Views on Money & Finance

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Lots of Things Ray Dalio Knows he Knows

Unlike dopes like me, Ray Dalio doesn’t think he thinks stuff. He knows he knows stuff. And he gave a wonderful interview to Bloomberg last night.  I’d post the whole video for you, but Bloomberg only appears to have posted clips so here’s the whole transcript.  It’s worth reading if you have the time, but… Read More

Three Things I Think I Think – Stupid Markets Edition

Here are some things I Think I am thinking about: 1.  The fact that markets are hard to “beat” does not make them smart.  I noticed this comment on a recent Scott Sumner post claiming that markets must be smart because they make it difficult to become wealthy.  He says: Markets are just amazingly wise.… Read More

Nowhere to Hide…

How weird has 2015 been so far?  This weird – every major asset class is negative on a one year basis (via Capital Spectator): I don’t have the exact data, but I would venture to guess that this just about never happens.  Heck, even a long-term bond is barely positive on a 1 year basis.  If… Read More

Are We on the Precipice of Another 2008?

When it comes to the recent market turmoil people are quick to make two comparisons – 1998 or 2008.  Both were “crisis” type events that led to big stock market declines and substantial economic turmoil, but 2008 was far more traumatic.  There are some important distinctions between the two environments so let’s look at the macro… Read More

Learning to Love Tax Cuts

Paul Krugman really hates tax cuts which is something that I find pretty weird for a Keynesian.  Here’s his latest post showing that the 2013 Obama tax hike coincided with more private sector job creation than the 2003 Bush tax cut.  He concludes that this “didn’t work” for Bush and that Jeb isn’t learning from big… Read More

Are Low Yielding Bonds Still a Good Stock Market Hedge?

One thing that’s stood out during the most recent stock market turmoil is that bonds aren’t performing all that well either.  US Treasury Bonds are up just 3.5% since stocks peaked and the aggregate bond index is up less than 1%.  The concern here is that ultra low yielding bonds can’t decline sustainably below 0%… Read More