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Pragmatic Capitalism

Practical Views on Money & Finance

‘Strategy Lab’

10 Questions (and Answers) for 2013

I’m doing a pre-emptive Q&A this week covering a  macro view of 2013.  I generally don’t believe in forecasting a full year out because I think it’s impossible, but that doesn’t mean we can’t provide some general guide posts for the year given what we currently know.  I usually update these views on a quarterly… Read More

Credit Suisse: 6 Reasons to be Bullish

In the face of increasing uncertainty and economic weakness we can always count on one of the big banks to find the bullish case (via Business Insider): “We are positive on equities as: 1) economic lead indicators, although beginning to soften, are consistent with reasonable GDP growth forecasts; 2) dovish central banks and synchronized QE are the… Read More

TRENDS IN HEDGE FUND EQUITY HOLDINGS

Hedge funds have been known to move stock prices, sometimes dramatically raising volatility of specific shares. Here are two latest trends on hedge funds’ equity holdings that may have some impact on equity volatility going forward.

SOME NOT SO DEEP THOUGHTS….

Here we go again.  It’s all about Europe.  And now we’re all in wait and see mode on Greece and whether they’ll default and defect and possibly trigger the Lehman 2.0 scenario that so many have been worried about for years now.  In many ways this market has a 2008 feel to it.  I wouldn’t… Read More

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE GUNDLACH CONFERENCE CALL

Jeff Gundlach just wrapped up another conference call and he made some good (and bad) insights.  Here are the key takeaways: He says Greece is likely to leave the Euro as the situation continues to spiral out of control. Spanish equities are a decent risk-on asset if you have to choose something in Europe.  But… Read More

IS THE COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE ENDING?

There has been a lot of debate about the end of the “Commodity Supercycle” in recent days. The subject came up along market speculations that a hard landing will take place in China, and that the “miracle” is “over. The premise here is that if the infrastructure development of China is over, then surely the so-called “Commodity Supercycle” is over.

STAY IN STOCKS OR “SELL IN MAY”?

“Sell in May and go away” is strategy that some investors and traders are likely contemplating right now. The adage is based on the historically weaker performance of stocks during the May through October time period. Adherents shift from stocks to cash at the beginning of May and then invest back into stocks at the start of November.

WHY HIGH DIVIDEND STOCKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM

At times when faced with stressed financial conditions, it is helpful to look through history for periods that bear similarities to the current environment. Obviously no two periods are ever the same, but the period of mid 40s to early 50s in some ways resembles markets of today.