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Pragmatic Capitalism

Practical Views on Money & Finance

‘Chart Of The Day’

Update on VIX Curve Inversion

A few weeks ago, we noted the relationship between an inverted VIX curve and declines in the S&P500 (see here). Taking a longer-term view, we see that the last few years have been relatively quiet–characterized by few, intermittent inversions and minor pullbacks in the index. A larger spike than we saw last week and/or a sustained inversion between prices of the VIX and the 3-month VIX would be symptomatic of a more meaningful correction:

AAII: Equity Allocations Hit a 2014 High in July

The AAII’s July asset allocation survey showed growing overall bullishness from retail investors as equity allocations jumped to their highest levels of 2014. The current reading of 67.5% is the second highest monthly reading since the bull market began in 2009.

Reminder: Tapering is not Tightening

A strange thing has happened ever since the “tapering” began last December – interest rates have fallen, stocks have risen and inflation expectations have actually increased.  This is almost exactly the opposite of what many people might have expected.  After all, if “tapering is tightening” and QE is “money printing” then something doesn’t add up… Read More