As the inflation from QE never arrives it actually looks like deflation might be creeping up on some of the world’s economies. And SocGen analysts think that means there could [ … ]
“83% historical probability of losses in the next 12 months”…
“Euphoria readings indicate the market may retreat with an 83% historical probability of losses in the next 12 months,”
Banks Warn on Negative Interest Rates
The FT has a good piece on the potential negative ramifications of paying negative interest rates on reserves: “Leading US banks have warned that they could start charging companies and consumers for [ … ]
Another Bear Capitulates….
At this rate we’ll all be bullish and just chasing one another up the ponzi phase of the bull market….There’s only a few of these big bad bears left out [ … ]
David Tepper – Still Super Bullish
Great interview here with David Tepper of Appaloosa. Bloomberg provides us with the video and a nice summary: Appaloosa Management’s David Tepper joined Bloomberg Television’s Stephanie Ruhle this afternoon, live [ … ]
The Quantitative Easing Behavioral Cycle
At an operational level I actually find Quantitative Easing to be incredibly boring and not nearly as impactful or sophisticated as most people tend to think. After all, from the [ … ]
Larry Summers: history will overwhelmingly approve QE
Some interesting perspectives here from Larry Summers on the economy and QE. I am not so sure history will view QE so approvingly, but I guess we’ll have to wait [ … ]
Goldman Sachs: 10 Themes for 2014
Just passing this along. Some good macro thoughts here via Goldman Sachs (via Business Insider): “1. Showtime for the US/DM Recovery Our 2013 outlook was dominated by the notion that [ … ]
On Money Demand & QE
One topic that seems to confuse a lot of people is the way that QE increases the broad money supply. This excellent post by Ramanan gets into the heart [ … ]