I still see a good deal of confusion and debate over the cause of the great financial crisis. To me, this is a crucial understanding because we can’t analyze the disease and study its potential cures if we can’t even identify the causes. Here’s my view of things:
Did the Fiscal Stimulus from 2009 Work?
The White House recently released a rather lengthy report on the effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. They’ve stated that the ARRA was a big success and the [ … ]
Understanding the Risk Profile Parity Strategy
Rich people typically lean right politically. Are they motivated by deeply moral views or self-interest? This column argues that money makes you right-wing. It shows that lottery winners in the UK are more likely to switch their allegiance from left to right.
China PMI: Economy Continues to Weaken
Just passing on an update on Chinese PMI for February – more weakness. The big risk, as previously, mentioned, is that China is the major driver of future potential weakness in emerging markets. As demand from China dries up the problems in emerging markets have the potential to persist and worsen. Here’s the key points from today’s release:
New Primer on SSRN – Understanding Quantitative Easing
New white paper of mine at SSRN on QE. It’s a brief primer that offers a succinct undertanding of QE and debunks some misunderstandings…
Bigger Isn’t Always Better on Wall Street
This probably doesn’t come as a big surprise to anyone reading, but bigger isn’t always better on Wall Street. And a nice new study is here to prove it. This study by Lubos Pastor, Robert Stambaugh and Lucian Taylor shows that funds suffer as they get larger. They state:
13-F Period is the Worst….
Have you heard the news? George Soros is betting huge on a stock market decline (see here, here and here). And that should matter to you because George Soros is [ … ]
NY Fed Household Credit Report: Further Improvement in Balance Sheets
Late last year I said the Balance Sheet Recession was over. And this quarter’s household debt survey from the NY Fed pretty much confirms that. This was the first year over year increase in debt since 2008. It’s a pretty momentous occasion in my view…
Is QE the Future of Monetary Policy?
One thing I’ve mentioned a number of times in recent months is my belief that we could very well enter the next recession in the USA with the Fed still [ … ]