By Comstock Partners Despite the problems facing the U.S. economy, the dysfunction in Washington and slowing global growth, stocks continue to rise on the basis of what we view as false assumptions. These assumptions are as follows: 1) Since almost every central bank in the world is aggressively easing, the market cannot go down. 2) Although the U.S.… Read More
As we face another brutal fight over the federal debt ceiling at a time when the economy still remains fragile, the stock market is oddly complacent. Even if the debt ceiling crisis is resolved, the result would be some combination of spending cuts and tax increases that would weaken the economy in 2013.
Long before it became headline news, we were talking about the corrosive effect of excessive debt, the softening U.S. and global economy, the “fiscal cliff”, the implausibility of a European solution, the probability of a hard landing in China and the prospect that corporate earnings estimates were far too high.