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Will Trump’s Protectionism cause global recession/depression?

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Hi Cullen,

What are your thoughts about the views of some economists suggesting that Trump’s protectionist policies will cause a global recession/depression? They are assuming that the ensuing strong dollar will cause countries like China to sell off all their US treasuries and Trump’s tariff’s on foreign imports will be met by tariffs on American exports in those countries, which in turn will slow down global trade.

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Posted by Incognito 7
Posted on 01/20/2017 8:41 AM
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It’s really impossible to tell what the outcome will be until we start seeing some real action here. The baseline scenario is that Trump will import a bit more inflation because he’ll increase wages marginally by requiring that more of the work be done here. How realistic is that? Probably not very because the President can’t wield that much influence on the global economy and I suspect he’ll realize that these issues are much more complex than his simplistic rhetoric.

But we’ll have to revisit when we start to see the meat on the bone.

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Cullen Roche Posted by Cullen Roche
Answered on 01/20/2017 3:04 PM
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    If trump tries to limit corporations from importing goods they manufacture overseas using cheap foreign labor, he will have to counterbalance with a huge corporate tax cut. The corporations will also make up the difference with increased automation effectively clamping down further on demand – downward spiral. He will also ignite a trade war. It will get pretty ugly.

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    Posted by Paul Lebow
    Answered on 01/23/2017 6:56 PM
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      Sounds like the typical doom porn as if Trump doesn’t know what side of his bread is buttered. Obama put on 500%+ tariffs on Chinese steel. Are we in a global recession/depression because of that? Zzzzz. The bully pulpit alone is working wonders to get big business to shape the fuck up. Even Bernie Sanders approves.

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      Posted by MachineGhost
      Answered on 01/25/2017 3:50 PM
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        I’m not talking Chinese steel – I’m talking American products manufactured overseas. You think Sam Walton will approve – get real.

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        Posted by Paul Lebow
        Answered on 01/25/2017 4:14 PM
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          Don’t really care that much about Walmart as they only sell the lowest tier quality of goods. What’s important about onshoring/reshoring is that the quality tier over Chinese junx improves, not just the cost. I want American-made microwaves that last 20+ years like they used to, not three.

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          Posted by MachineGhost
          Answered on 01/25/2017 11:04 PM
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            Walmart is the poster boy for the successful free market business. The Chinese “junk” is now pretty much an outdated myth. China has advanced and can compete with and even surpass US technology and manufacturing. We can’t get certain electronics because we haven’t invested in the chip foundries that the Chinese have. More interested in the short term quick buck. If US manufacturers were as innovative as the Chinese, they would have produced lower quality goods as well. Consumers seem pretty happy with the junx.(besides it keeps my brother’s appliance repair business booming :-)

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            Posted by Paul Lebow
            Answered on 01/25/2017 11:23 PM
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              Chinese have very little internal innovation of their own. Like the former USSR, 95% of what they have is stolen, copycatted and cloned from the West via corporate espionage, cyberhacking and/or outrright plaigairsm. You can’t even proprietary, exclusive manufacturers not to steal and clone your vanguard designs ASAP as Apple found out. Beside, the “high quality” is still largely in Taiwan not the Chinese mainland. Taiwan is to China what the UK is to the EU.

              The world’s innovation is still majorly done in the USA where all the brains and talent are… just the “dumb” manufacturing is offshored. Sure, there’s some up and comer global Chinese namebrands that we’re tentatively familiar with, but they still got their start expropriating others ideas and/or buying out Western companies.

              Most consumers are dumb idiots (Black Friday fights anyone?) that conflate materialism with happiness at both ends of the socio-economic specturm. I’m not too concerned ’bout them because they’re not leading us into the post-capitalist future. What will those silly people do when autofabrication machines cater to their every whim and desire for ready made junx?

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              Posted by MachineGhost
              Answered on 01/28/2017 1:24 PM
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