I share your skepticism. The market for foreign exchange is dominated by those revaluing assets traded in the financial markets. In other words, if there is a marginal price setter for exchange rates it is probably big banks and central banks exchanging currencies based on financial market changes. Trade is a relatively miniscule portion in comparison.
One thing that i do kinda like here is that we’re simplifying the tax code a bit. The corporate tax has become a mess that is largely avoided. So any transfer of taxes from the corporate tax to some other form of corporate tax is an improvement in my mind. The question is who will really bear the burden of this tax? Will it be consumers who eat the tax as it’s passed along or will it be shareholders who earn more because they are earning higher profits? I don’t know and it’s largely contingent on the currency changes which are unknown.
One thing we do know is that a plan like this is likely to increase govt revenues. This means govt saving will increase which, net net, is not likely to be good in this environment.
It’s a strangely progressive plan with a balanced budget tilt. So there’s some good and bad. On the whole I would probably oppose the plan without an offsetting budget increase or tax cut, which, I think might actually be the way this all plays out when Trump ends up blowing the budget out more than some people expect….